Getting a Hold of the Fiscal Cliff and Taxmageddon--What Happens To Defense, Welfare, Jobs and You-and Who Can Help?

Hear a great explanation of the fiscal cliff from our friend who likes to dig out the true facts and figures--Mr. Henry Burke on the first hour and then some words of encouragement as to why the Church must be involved in politics in the 2nd hour.

Obama The Jobs Killer

Audio Link to Interview Monday 9/24 (Covered Part 1 and Part 2)

 Obama: The Job Killer

[Part 2 of 2]

by Henry W. Burke

8.31.12

INTRODUCTION

We have seen that Obama has failed miserably atcreating jobs!

 [Please refer to "Obama Has Failed to Create Jobs."]

Rather than helping our struggling economy,Obama's policies have exacerbated the problem. Does he deserve the title -- "Obama: The Job Killer?"  This report will explore the following areas to prove the case:

A.  Obamacare Is Killing Jobs

B.  Taxmageddon Kills Jobs

C.  Extending Unemployment Insurance

D.  Free Trade Agreements

E.  Moratorium on Oil Drilling

F.  Keystone XL Pipeline

G.  EPA Regulations on Coal

H.  Increased Deficit Spending

I.  Competition from Assistance Programs

A.  Obamacare Is Killing Jobs

Obamacare is one of the biggest job killers.  The Heritage Foundation has determined that the healthcare measure harms job growth in these three ways:

1.  Employer Mandate.  Obamacare requires all businesses with 50 or more full-time employees to provide health coverage for their workers or pay a $2,000 penalty for each employee after the first 30 workers.  This employer mandate encourages businesses to hire part-time workers rather than full-time employees.  Also businesses can avoid penalties by keeping their number of employees under the 50-employee threshold.  This further discourages the creation of new jobs. 

Heritage research has calculated that the Obamacare mandate increases the cost of hiring a full-time worker by $10.03 per hour; the increase is at least $13.75 an hour for those with family health coverage.  

2.  New Taxes and Regulations.  Obamacare imposes 18 new taxes that total $502 billion in the first 10 years.  In later years, the cost dramatically increases to about $1.7 trillion per decade (triple the amount for the first decade).

The Obamacare tax increases will have a chilling effect on our economy.  The higher tax rates in Obamacare decrease the incentives for individuals to work and save more.

Obamacare will slow economic growth and destroy jobs.  The Obamacare taxes transfer money from productive private hands to the less efficient public sector.  Unlike government, the private sector allocates resources where they will contribute the most to economic growth.

One example of horrendous job losses comes from the 2.3% excise tax on medical devices.  Research has shown that this tax could result in job losses exceeding 43,000 workers.  Also these medical devices will be more expensive for the many senior citizens who need these life-saving and life-changing medical devices to ease their pain and suffering.

3.  Unpredictable Future Costs and Regulations.  A recent study found that 33 percent of business owners cited new requirements in Obamacare as either the biggest or second-biggest obstacle to hiring. In addition, Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said:

 We have frequently heard strong comments to the effect of ‘My company won’t hire a single additional worker until we know what health insurance costs are going to be.'

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/03/23/the-3-biggest-ways-obamacare-kills-jobs/

Obamacare has frozen business hiring across America as businesses wait to see how the law will be applied.   

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/08/03/morning-bell-has-any-administration-policy-not-killed-jobs-lately/

B.  Taxmageddon Kills Jobs

Taxmageddon will amount to $494 billion in tax hikes.  Without Congressional and White House action, the largest tax increase in history will hit this country on January 1, 2013!

Businesses are holding off on hiring.  Although these taxes do not take effect until January 1, 2013, they are already having a negative impact on the economy.  This slows job creation and prevents many unemployed Americans from going back to work. 

Uncertainty harms everyone.  Families, businesses, and investors need certainty to operate.  They need to know how much they will pay in taxes next year before they make important economic decisions.  Politicians decry the fact that billions of dollars are sitting on the sidelines.  People will not invest in businesses and hire new employees in an uncertain business climate.  They are stuck in neutral while they wait to see if Congress and Obama will act.

Obama’s plan to repeal the Bush tax cuts for incomes over $200,000 ($250,000 for joint filers) would raise the top two marginal tax rates from 33 % to 36 %, and 35 % to 39.6 %.  The debate about whether to adopt Obama's tax increase centers heavily on how these higher tax rates would affect important job-creating businesses.   

By targeting his tax increases on incomes over $200,000, Obama is maximizing the detrimental effects of the tax hikes on job creation.  Obama's misguided tax policies will continue to destroy jobs and hamper an economic recovery. 

Two inter-connected issues are in play -- Taxmageddon and the "fiscal cliff."  The fiscal cliff consists of Taxmageddon and the mandatory federal spending reductions left over from the disastrous Budget Control act of 2011. 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a recent report (8.22.12) on the impact of Taxmageddon and the fiscal cliff.  If no action is taken on the fiscal cliff by Obama and Congress,the CBO is predicting a recession in 2013.  The CBO report stated:

 Such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 and the unemployment rate rising to about 9 percent in the second half of calendar year 2013.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539

The Republican-led House recently passed a bill to extend the Bush tax cuts for next year and thereby defer part of Taxmageddon.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will not even allow a vote on the House measure; Obama has vowed to veto any such measure that reaches his desk.

C.  Extending Unemployment Insurance

As part of Obama's Stimulus measure, unemployment insurance was extended by 20 weeks.  Other measures extended unemployment compensation even further. 

Many people, including some business owners, do not understand how this works.  Because the government cuts the unemployment check, it is widely assumed that the government pays the unemployment benefits.  In reality, the benefits are funded by the employers' taxes.  Because it works like insurance, people's taxes will go up as the employees collect more unemployment benefits.  In many states, if an employee collects $10,000 in unemployment payments, he can expect to pay over $20,000 in increased premiums. 

Smart business owners control their costs.  One way of doing this is by limiting the hiring of new people.  Democrats may have thought they were showing compassion for the unemployed by extending the number of unemployment compensation weeks.  This is producing unintended consequences; employers are less likely to make new hires when unemployment insurance premiums are increasing.  

D.  Free Trade Agreements

Obama is killing jobs by refusing to move forward on the pending free trade agreements (FTAs) with Columbia, Panama and South Korea.  Obama is holding these three job-creating free trade agreements hostage to another measure.  He wants to increase funding for the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program and is using this TAA as his ransom.  The White House claims that extending the TAA for another decade would cost $7.2 billion.

The free trade agreements would create thousands of jobs in America. Most estimates range above 100,000 new jobs.  Free trade offers Americans tremendous opportunities and we sorely need the jobs.  In Obama's first State of the Union Address, he set an ambitious goal: “double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America.”  If the trade agreements die, Obama will have to explain why he shot the hostage!

Panama is working on a $5 billion expansion of the Panama Canal(originally built by the U.S. in 1914). This gigantic construction project will add a third set of locks and enlarge the system to accommodate larger ships.  Clearly an FTA with Panama would encourage U.S. participation in this mammoth project.

E.  Moratorium on Oil Drilling

After the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the Obama Administration imposed a six-month blanket moratorium on deepwater oil drilling in the Gulf.  The moratorium was based on a flawed report by the Secretary of Interior.   In June 2010, a federal district court overturned Obama's ban.  Among other things, the court found that the summary recommendations were added afterthe report was peer reviewed by a team of seven experts.  As the court pointed out, there are 150,000 jobsdirectly related to offshore operations.

A House Committee issued subpoenas on 4.03.12 to the Obama Administration demanding documents about the editing of the report that accompanied the drilling ban.  TheWashington Times reported:

"The report falsely stated the professional views of independent engineers and the moratorium directly caused thousands of lost jobs, economic pain throughout the Gulf region, and a decline in American energy production,” said Rep. Doc Hastings, Washington Republican and Natural Resources Committee chairman. “It’s important to clearly understand exactly how this happened.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/apr/3/house-gop-subpoenas-obama-administration-oil-drill/

F.  Keystone XL Pipeline

If Americans have any doubt about Obama's penchant for killing jobs, they need to look at the Keystone XL Pipeline.  On 11.10.11, the Obama Administration announced that it would delay a decision on the pipeline until after the 2012 election.  In a move to appease his leftist environmentalist base, Obama ignored the practical, scientific facts.

The environmental aspects of the pipeline have been studied to death, with a review that lasted three years.  The Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) rated the potential for water contamination as minimal and contained in a limited area.  

Obviously, he cares more about his re-election than the 13 million unemployed Americans sitting on the sidelines.  The $7 billion Keystone pipeline would bring at least 20,000 good jobs to the U.S.  Obama had to choose between alienating his union supporters and his green environmental folks.  He chose to side with the latter.  This decision reflects politics at its worst!

G.  EPA Regulations on Coal

Obama promised that electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket as a result of his cap-and-trade system. He also said:

          So if someone wants to build a coal power plant, they can, it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/07/12/epa-regulations-will-kill-coal-jobs-in-texas/

While cap and trade never became law, Obama is making good on his promise to find other ways to get the job done.  If he cannot pass a particular measure, he circumvents Congress by using administrative means.  He is also making good on his promise to bankrupt coal and make it very expensive. 

Low-sulfur lignite coal is heavily used in coal-fired power plants around the country.  Directly and indirectly, lignite mining supports about 14,000 jobs and is the lifeblood of many communities. Obama is lousy at creating jobs but he is a master at destroying jobs!

H.  Increased Deficit Spending

Obama has racked up huge deficits and these deficits add to our burgeoning national debt. 

The national debt has increased by $5.4 trillion in the 3.5 years (42 months) Obama has been in office.  The national debt was $10.6 trillion on 1.20.09 and is $16.0 trillion today (on 8.28.12).

 [$16.0 trillion - $10.6 trillion = $5.4 trillion]

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway

When the federal government borrows money through deficit spending, the government is competing with the private sector for funds.  This reduces private sector capital investment and adversely affects job growth. 

According to the CBO, high debt levels decrease the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  This hampers job growth and employment possibilities.   If we want to put people back to work, we must reduce the out-of-control deficit spending.

I.  Competition from Assistance Programs

Jobs can also be killed from another direction. For thousands of years, an old adage applied -- "If a man does not work, the man does not eat." 

Most compassionate Americans (including conservative Republicans) believe in a safety net for the truly needy.  We should provide assistance for the elderly, the mentally or physically-disabled, and those people who cannot work.  On the other hand, when the government is overly generous with the welfare programs, it destroys the incentive to work.

I mentioned above that unemployment compensation had been extended.  When unemployment compensation is increased to 99 weeks, for example, that destroys much of the incentive to look for a job. 

In Part 1, "Obama Has Failed to Create Jobs," I cited the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figure that 7.7 million people had dropped out of the labor force.  Many of those people have become so discouraged that they have given up looking for a job.  However, millions of people are getting their needs met through various welfare programs and have no incentive to work.  Many examples could be given where this is occurring.  A few examples include:

1.  General Welfare Spending.  Under Obama, welfare spending has increased three times fasterthan prior increases.  Federal welfare spending has grown from $522 billion in 2008 to $717 billion in 2011 (a 37% increase in three years).

2.  Food Stamps.  Under Obama, food stamp spending has more than doubled, going from $39 billion in 2008 to $81 billion in 2012.  The number of people on food stamps has grown from 31 million people in 2008 to 45 million persons in 2011.  (This equates to 1 in 6 people.)  The Obama Administration is actively encouraging people to sign up for food stamps (including initiatives with the Mexican government to reach immigrants). 

3.  Housing Assistance.  Because no time limits or work requirements are associated with any of these programs, recipients have no incentive to find employment or leave the rolls.

4.  Social Security Disability.   With continuing high unemployment, more people are seeking Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits.  As a result, the SSDI program is paying out more money than it is taking in through payroll taxes.

Older workers are seeking Social Security retirement benefits earlier than expected, andsome are hoping they will qualify for SSDI.  Many people are faking disabilities to qualify for SSDI benefits.  SSDI benefits are somewhat more generous than retirement benefits and turn into retirement benefits once the recipient reaches full retirement age. In addition, SSDI benefits allow the recipient to qualify for Medicare after two years, regardless of what age the individual has reached at that time.

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/08/23/social-securitys-disability-program-faces-an-empty-trust-fund/

5.  Elimination of Welfare Work Requirements. On 7.12.12, the Heritage Foundation broke the story that the Obama Administration had gutted the work requirements from the 1996 welfare reform law.  Heritage also revealed that a hidden provision in the Stimulus Bill had already waived the work requirement in the food stamp program. Obama is bypassing Congress and the enacted laws by changing the rules by executive fiat. Obama is not a king and America is not a monarchy!    

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/08/24/morning-bell-media-fact-checkers-promote-obamas-gutting-of-welfare-reform/

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/08/15/obama-administration-already-tossed-the-food-stamp-work-requirement/

CONCLUSION

Obama has been responsible for numerous job killing activities.  These include: Obamacare, inaction on Taxmageddon, extension of unemployment insurance, failure to pass the free trade agreements, moratorium on Gulf oil drilling, Keystone XL Pipeline, EPA regulations on coal, increased deficit spending and mushrooming welfare programs. 

If we add all of these up, the job losses are in the millions of people!

Barack Obama certainly deserves the title -- "Obama: The Job Killer!"

Additionally, Obama's policies are adding huge amounts of money to our national debt.  Under Obama, the national debt has grown by $5.4 trillion in 3.5 years. 

We cannot afford four more years of Obama!

Bio for Henry W. Burke

Henry Burke is a Civil Engineer  with a B.S.C.E. and M.S.C.E.  He has been a Registered Professional Engineer (P.E.) for 37 years and has worked as a Civil Engineer in construction for over 40 years. 

Mr. Burke had a successful 27-year career with a large construction contractor. 

Henry Burke serves as a full-time volunteer to oversee various construction projects. He has written numerous articles on education, engineering, construction, politics, taxes, and the economy.

Henry W. Burke

E-mail:  hwburke@cox.net

Obama Has Failed To Create Jobs

Audio Link to this article (Part 1 and also Part 2)

 Obama Has Failed to Create Jobs

by Henry W. Burke

9.2.12

Excerpts from this article by Henry W. Burke:

"Fact-Checking" of Obama's speeches suggests that he is overstating the results on jobs created during his term. 

Obama said from March 2010 to December 2011, "We created 3 million jobs in 22 months" or 136,000 jobs per month.  Not so.  The number should be 84,000 jobs per month.

Obama said from March 2010 to July 2012, "We created 4.5 million jobs in 29 months" or 155,000 jobs per month.  Again, not so.  The number should be 113,000 jobs per month. 

========================

[Part 1 of 2]

INTRODUCTION

It is important to evaluate Obama's performance at creating jobs.  Of course, most knowledgeable people understand that the government does not create jobs (except jobs for government employees); rather, jobs are created by the private sector.  However, government policies can have a huge influence on job creation!

 Obama and the Democrats like to talk about all of the jobs they have created since he took office.  To verify or refute these claims, I will look at the current job picture and compare it with the job situation when he was inaugurated in January 2009. 

I will also analyze Obama's job creation rhetoric for accuracy and provide a tool to gauge the results.  Finally, I will discuss the success or failure of the Stimulus Bill. 

The following subjects will be covered:

A.  Current Job Picture

B.  Comparison between January 2009 and Current

C.  New Jobs Required to Keep Pace with Population Growth

D.  Obama's Rhetoric on Creating Jobs 

E.  Stimulus Bill -- Success or Failure?

F.  Stimulus Bill and Construction Jobs

A.  Current Job Picture

The recession that began in December 2007 officially ended in June 2009 but we would never know it.  Employment has fallen by over 7 million jobs since the recession began. The labor market remains stagnant and unemployment remains above 8 percent.  The unemployment rate has now been over 8 percent for 42 months (Obama's full time in office). 

This is the longest period with unemployment over 8 percent on record!

The current "recovery" is the weakest recovery of the post–World War II era.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Employment Situation Summary for July on 8.03.12.  It showed that unemployment increased from 8.2 % to 8.3 %, with 12.8 million people unemployed.  Only 163,000 new jobs were created during July, far below the number needed for real growth.  (This data is shown in the table under the next section.)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

There are 12.794 million unemployed workers and 155.013 million people in the civilian labor force.  [12.794 million / 155.013 million = 8.3% unemployment rate]  The number of unemployed workers increased from 12.749 million in June to 12.794 million in July (an increase of 45,000).  [12,794,000 - 12,749,000 = 45,000]

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.2 million persons; this group accounts for 40.7% of the total unemployed. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in July.  These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

In July, 2.5 million were marginally attached to the labor force.  The number of "underemployed" people increased in July to 23.6 million; the "underemployment rate" is 15.2%.  "Underemployed" includes unemployed, part-time for economic reasons and marginally attached.  [12.794 + 8.246 + 2.529 = 23.569 million]

The labor force participation rate dropped slightly from 63.8% in June to 63.7% in July.  (There are 155.013 million in civilian labor force and 243.354 million in civilian non-institutional population.)  [155.013 million / 243.354 million = 63.7%]

The employment population ratio dropped to 58.4% in July.  (There are 142.220 million employed and 243.354 in the civilian population.)  [142.220 / 243.354 = 58.4%]

B.  Comparison between January 2009 and Current

Obama took office on January 20, 2009.  How does the unemployment situation compare between his inauguration and today? 

Comparison between 2009 and Present*

(All figures are millions of persons)

Category	Jan. 2009	Jul. 2012	Change
Civilian non-institutional population	234.739	243.354	+ 8.615
Civilian labor force	154.140	155.013	+ 0.873
Employment	142.221	142.220	- 0..001
Unemployment	11.919	12.794	+ 0.875
Unemployment Percent	7.7 %	8.3%	+ 0.6%
Labor force participation rate	65.7%	63.7%	- 2.0%
Employment population ratio	60.6%	58.4%	- 2.2%
Not in labor force	80.599	88.340	+7.741
Persons who currently want a job	5.643	6.837	+1.194

* All figures in the table are seasonally adjusted.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Between January 2009 and the present (July 2012):

The civilian non-institutional population increased by 8.615 million (8,615,000) yet the civilian labor force has only grown by 0.873 million (873,000) people.

[243.354 - 234.739 = 8.615 million]

The civilian labor force has grown by 873,000 workers.

[155.013 - 154.140 = 0.873 million = 873,000 people]

The number of employed workers has dropped by 1,000.

[142.221 - 142.220 = 0.001 million = 1,000]

The number of unemployed people has increased by 875,000.

[12.794 - 11.919 = 0.875 million = 875,000]

The unemployment rate has gone from 7.7% to 8.3%, an increase of 0.6%.

[8.3% - 7.7% = 0.6%]

The civilian labor force is the sum of the number of employed workers plus unemployed people.  For July 2012, this is 155.013 million.

[142.220 + 12.794 = 155.014 million or 155,014,000]  (BLS has 155.013)

The civilian labor force participation rate is the civilian labor force divided by the civilian non-institutional population.  In January 2009, this rate was 65.7%.

[154.140 / 234.739 = 65.7%]

For July 2012, this rate is 63.7%.

[155.013 / 243.354 = 63.7%]

A 63.7% labor force participation rate is very low!  In fact, it is the lowest rate since 1984, and the lowest in this cycle.  For many years, a participation rate of 65.8% was the standard.  If our labor force participation rate was at its historical level of 65.8%, we would have 160.127 million workers in the labor force.

[160.127 / 243.354 = 65.8%]

C.  New Jobs Required to Keep Pace with Population Growth

The civilian population has grown by 8.615 million people since Obama took office in January 2009, but the labor force has increased by only 873,000 (0.873 million) in the 3.5 years.  In this 42-month period, the population expanded by 205,000 (0.205 million) per month while the labor force grew by only 21,000 (0.021 million) per month. 

[8.615 / 42 months = 0.205 million per month; and 0.873 / 42 months = 0.021 million per month]

The U.S. population has grown by 205,000 per month in the last 3.5 years.  With the historical labor force participation rate of 65.8%, we need to add about 135,000 new jobs per month to just break even with population growth.  [65.8% x 205,000 = 134,890]

With a current population of 243.354 million, and the historical labor force participation rate of 65.8%, we would expect the current labor force to be 160.127 million.  The labor force is 5.114 million (5,114,000) smaller than expected.

[65.8% x 243.354 million = 160.127 million; and 160.127 - 155.013 = 5.114 million]

With the population increasing by 205,000 per month, the number of workers in the labor force should increase by 134,890 per month.

Thus, Obama needs to add about 135,000 new jobs per month to just break even with population growth; but during the time that Obama has been in office, he has added a net total of zero jobs.

Unemployment will not improve significantly unless the economy is producing about 200,000 new jobs per month.

Employment has been essentially flat since Obama took office (a drop of 1,000 workers).  During that time, the population has increased by 8.615 million.  With the historical labor force participation rate of 65.8%, the current labor force should be 160.127 million.  Because the current labor force has only 155.013 million workers, it is 5.114 million workers lower than expected. 

Obviously, many workers are discouraged and have left the workforce.  According to the BLS, 7.7 million persons have dropped out of the labor force.  Obama has killed millions of jobs and has failed to create many new jobs.  His weak job creation has not kept up with the population growth.

D.  Obama's Rhetoric on Creating Jobs 

Democrats have their standard talking points about the number of jobs that Obama has created.  Obama delivered his 2012 State of the Union Address on January 24, 2012.  He stated:

                In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than 3 million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs since 2005.  American manufacturers are hiring again, creating jobs for the first time since the late 1990s.   The state of our Union is getting stronger. 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2012/01/25/2012-state-union-address-enhanced-version#transcript

In a more recent example (on 8.03.12), Obama said the following:

            This morning, we learned that our businesses created 172,000 new jobs in the month of July.  That means that we've now created 4.5 million new jobs over the last 29 months -- and 1.1 million new jobs so far this year. 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/03/remarks-president-tax-cuts-middle-class

When a person first hears these statements, he thinks Obama's policies must really be working.  (That is his desired goal.)  Let us examine these talking points.

Fact-Check:

If I wanted to maximize the number of jobs created, I would select a month with high unemployment as the base.  Under Obama, the highest unemployment month was October 2009, with 10.0%; March 2010 was close behind, with 9.7%.   I think this is why the Obama staff selected March 2010 as the base and not January 2009 (the month he started his term).  January 2009 had 7.7% unemployment. 

The base month or starting month in both cases is March 2010.  (January 2012 minus 22 months yields March 2010; July 2012 minus 29 months yields March 2010.) 

A speech delivered on 1.24.12 would use December 2011 unemployment figures; a speech given on 8.03.12 uses July 2012 unemployment figures.  I first analyzed these numbers by comparing the December 2011 unemployment figures with the March 2010 numbers.  I did the same thing with the July 2012 numbers. 

The results for the July numbers are summarized in the following table:

Comparison Between March 2010 and July 2012*

(All figures are millions of persons)

Category	Mar. 2010	Jul. 2012	Change
Civilian non-institutional population	237.159	243.354	+ 6.195
Civilian labor force	153.895	155.013	+1.118
Employment	138.952	142.220	+ 3.268
Unemployment	14.943	12.794	- 2.149
Unemployment Percent	9.7%	8.3%	- 1.4%
Labor force participation rate	64.9%	63.7%	- 1.2%
Employment population ratio	58.6%	58.4%	- 0.2%

* All figures in the table are seasonally adjusted.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

My Figures (based on BLS data):

In the above table, I will focus on the "Employment" line.  During the period from March 2010 to July 2012, employment increased by 3.268 million persons.

[142.220 million - 138.952 million = 3.268 million]

The period from March 2010 to July 2012 is 29 months.  Thus, the average number of jobs created per month is 113,000.

[3,268,000 / 29 months = 113,000 jobs per month]

I prepared a similar table to compare the period from March 2010 to December 2011.  (To save space, I will not include that table here.)

During that period, employment increased by 1.838 million.

[140.790 million - 138.952 million = 1.838 million]

The period from March 2010 to December 2011 is 22 months.  Thus, the average number of jobs created per month is 84,000.

[1,838,000 / 22 months = 84,000]

Obama's Figures:

Obama's January statement equates to about 136,000 jobs per month.  [3,000,000 / 22 months = 136,000 jobs per month]

Obama's August statement equates to about 155,000 jobs per month.  [4,500,000 / 29 months = 155,000 jobs per month]

Obama's figures and my figures are summarized in the following table:

Comparison Between 2012 and March 2010

(Jobs per month)

Speech Date	Months to Base	Calculated from Obama's Statement	Calculated from BLS Data
Jan. 2012	22	136,000	84,000
Aug. 2012	29	155,000	113,000

Comparison Results:

In Obama's January 2012 speech, his statement implied the period from March 2010 to December 2011.  For this period, Obama's statement that "we created 3 million jobs in 22 months" equates to 136,000 jobs per month.  My calculations (based on BLS data) show 84,000 jobs per month.  This is a huge difference!

In Obama's August 2012 speech, his statement implied the period from March 2010 to July 2012.  For this period, Obama's statement that "we created 4.5 million jobs in 29 months" equates to 155,000 jobs per month.  My calculations (based on BLS data) show 113,000 jobs per month.  Once again, this is a big difference.

This "Fact-Checking" of the two speeches indicates that Obama is overstating the number of jobs created in both cases.  If we were doing as well as Obama indicates, the unemployment rate would be dropping faster than it is.  Currently, unemployment is stuck in the 8.2% to 8.3% range.

The next time we hear this talking point, we need to do the math.  If we calculate about 150,000 jobs per month, we should be skeptical.  Obama and his minions are hoping that we do not understand that our population is growing and this demands an expanding job market. 

It takes at least 150,000 new jobs per month to just break even with population growth.  If we consistently produce 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs per month, the unemployment rate should drop and we will put people back to work.

E.  Stimulus Bill -- Success or Failure?

Obama rammed the $787 Billion Stimulus Bill through Congress during his first month in office.  (He signed the measure on 2.17.09.)  [The Stimulus was later increased to $862 Billion then adjusted to $814 Billion.] 

To help win approval, the White House promised that unemployment would not exceed 8.0%.  How should we gauge the success of the Stimulus Bill?

Instead of dropping, the unemployment rate began 2009 at 7.7% and steadily increased to 10.1% in October 2009 (average for the year was 9.3%).  In 2010, unemployment ranged from 9.4% to 9.9% and averaged 9.6%.  Unemployment hovered around 9.0% for most of 2011 and dropped slightly to 8.7% in November and 8.5% December.  Unemployment in 2012 is running from 8.1% to 8.3%.

Obama's Stimulus Bill relied on the flawed Keynesian model of rapidly increased spending to propel the economy forward.  The policy failed and we were left with huge deficits and a larger national debt. 

The Keynesian theory is like trying to raise the level of water in a swimming pool by taking water out of the other end.  It doesn't work very well!

By almost any economic measure, the Stimulus Bill has been a complete failure!  Ask some of the 13 million unemployed workers what they think of the Stimulus Bill. 

F.  Stimulus Bill and Construction Jobs

Stimulus money was supposed to target “shovel-ready” construction jobs.  Infrastructure spending was supposedly a big part of the measure; in reality, it amounted to only $105 billion or about 13% of the total bill.  

Construction is one of our largest industries yet it gets very little media coverage.  Talk with the millions of unemployed construction workers about the Stimulus, where the recession hit especially hard. 

The unemployment rate in the construction industry has been much higher than the national average for all workers (often double or more).  For example, the general unemployment rate in February 2010 was 9.7%, whereas, the unemployment rate for construction was a whopping 27.1% that same month!  (That set a 10-year high.) 

CONCLUSION

Under Obama's watch, our economy is experiencing the weakest recovery since World War II. 

"Fact-Checking" of Obama's speeches suggests that he is overstating the results on jobs created during his term.  Obama said from March 2010 to December 2011, "We created 3 million jobs in 22 months" or 136,000 jobs per month.  Not so.  The number should be 84,000 jobs per month. 

Obama said from March 2010 to July 2012, "We created 4.5 million jobs in 29 months" or 155,000 jobs per month.  Again, not so.  The number should be 113,000 jobs per month. 

Obama's $800 billion Stimulus Bill has been a complete failure!  The only thing it accomplished is an increase in our national debt. 

Because Obama has never had a real job, he knows nothing about job creation.  His policies are not working! 

Why should we give him four more years?

Bio for Henry W. Burke

Henry Burke is a Civil Engineer  with a B.S.C.E. and M.S.C.E.  He has been a Registered Professional Engineer (P.E.) for 37 years and has worked as a Civil Engineer in construction for over 40 years. 

Mr. Burke had a successful 27-year career with a large construction contractor. 

Henry Burke serves as a full-time volunteer to oversee various construction projects. He has written numerous articles on education, engineering, construction, politics, taxes, and the economy.

Henry W. Burke

E-mail:  hwburke@cox.net

The Obamacare Taxes and Taxmageddon--Get to know what is coming...

Obamacare imposes 18 new taxes that total $502 billion in the first 10 years.  In later years, the cost dramatically increases to about $1.7 trillion per decade (triple the amount for the first decade).

7.07.12     INTRODUCTION

On 6.28.12, the Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare is a tax!  The ruling was a huge disappointment but it clarified this one point.

In his signature health care legislation, Obama broke his promise not to raise taxes on the middle class.

Obamacare imposes 18 new taxes that total $502 billion in the first 10 years.  In later years, the cost dramatically increases to about $1.7 trillion per decade (triple the amount for the first decade).

The Obamacare tax increases will have a chilling effect on our economy as the measure slows economic growth and destroys jobs.  The higher tax rates in Obamacare decrease the incentives for individuals to work and save more.

Obama’s health care plan will soak the top-earning households in America – those earning more than $200,000 as single filers or $250,000 as married couples.

Our economy is sick and Obamacare is exacerbating the problem.  Unemployment is high and economic growth is low.  Businesses will not hire more workers in this uncertain economic environment.  About 52% of likely voters favor repeal of Obamacare.

Obama's Broken Promises

Barack Obama repeatedly promised not to raise taxes on middle-class families. On Thursday, 6.28.12, the Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare is a tax!  This means that Obama has already raised taxes.

Chief Justice John Roberts upheld Obama's health care law on the grounds that the “individual mandate” is a constitutionally permissible tax increase. 

Obamacare imposes new taxes on our country; this violates Obama’s pledge.  Middle-class families will pay the vast majority of these new taxes.

The Supreme Court’s interpretation puts Obama in a peculiar situation. In 2008, he promised not to raise taxes on the middle class and accused Republican nominee John McCain of wanting to tax health benefits.  Presidential candidate Obama proclaimed:

          And I can make a firm pledge: under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase…not any of your taxes. My opponent can’t make that pledge.… [H]e wants to tax your health benefits.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=78612#ixzz1z6VUF5Uo 

Throughout his presidential campaign, then-candidate Barack Obama promised the American people: “If you’re a family that’s making $250,000 a year or less, you will see no increase in your taxes.” After he became president, Barack Obama reiterated that pledge, even on national television.  

Obama repeatedly insisted that Obamacare was not a tax but the Supreme Court is saying the exact opposite.  What does this tell all of us about Obama’s integrity? 

Obama grossly mischaracterized his health care plan, and now American citizens will pay the price. He has both attacked individual freedom and burdened millions in the middle class.

Now that the Supreme Court has deemed Obama's health care law a "tax," some people have suggested that we call Obamacare by a new name -- "ObamaTax."  Is that label justified?

Obamacare Imposes 18 New Taxes

Obamacare (The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act or PPACA) imposes numerous tax hikes that transfer more than $500 billion over 10 years from hard-working American families and businesses to Congress.

Obamacare contains 18 separate tax increases that will cost taxpayers $502 billion between 2010 and 2019.  The 18 Obamacare tax increases are as follows:

[The revenue raised during the 2010-2019 period is in brackets.]

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/01/obamacare-and-new-taxes-destroying-jobs-and-the-economy

1.  Increase Medicare Hospital Insurance payroll tax from 2.9 % to 3.8 % for couples earning more than $250,000 a year ($200,000 for single filers).  [$210 billion]

2.  Apply 3.8 % Hospital Insurance tax to investment income for couples earning more than $250,000 ($200,000 for single).  [Amount included under #1]

3.  Impose mandate to buy health insurance (individuals and employers).  [$65 billion]

4.  Impose an annual fee on health insurance providers.  [$60 billion]

5.  Apply a 40 % excise tax on "Cadillac" health insurance plans.  [$32 billion]

6.  Impose an annual fee on branded drugs.  [$27 billion]

7.  Exclude unprocessed fuels from cellulosic biofuel producer credit.  [$24 billion]

8.  Impose 2.3 % excise tax on certain medical devices.  [$20 billion]

9.  Increase corporate taxes through stricter enforcement on business activities.  [$17 billion]

10.  Raise the floor on medical expense deduction from 7.5 % to 10.0 %.  [$15 billion]

11.  Limit Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) to $2,500.  [$13 billion]

12.  Reduce number of medical products purchased from FSAs and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).  [$5 billion]

13.  Eliminate corporate deduction for prescription expenses for retirees.  [$4.5 billion]

14.  Increase corporate taxes through changes in tax liability.  [$4.5 billion]

15.  Impose 10 % excise tax on indoor tanning services.  [$2.7 billion]

16.  Increase penalty to 20 % for purchasing disallowed products with HSAs.  [$1.4 billion]

17.  Increase taxes on health insurance companies.  [$0.6 billion]

18.  Repeal special deduction for Blue Cross / Blue Shield organizations.  [$0.4 billion]

                                      Total Revenue Raised = $502 billion

From the above list, you can see that five major tax hikes make up almost 75 % of the new revenue raised by Obamacare.  The tax increases for Medicare Hospital Insurance (on payroll taxes and investment income) will raise $210 billion.  The mandate to buy health insurance will raise $65 billion; the annual fee on health insurance providers will raise $60 billion; and the excise tax on "Cadillac" health insurance plans will raise $32 billion.  Together, these five taxes will raise $367 billion (73 % of the $502 billion total). 

Government bureaucrats use the term "revenue raised" but we know that "ObamaTax" is imposing huge tax increases on hard-working American families and businesses.

Obamacare Taxes Will Increase Dramatically in Future

When Obamacare first passed, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that its tax hikes would total $502 billion over the next 10 years.  However, most of the new, higher taxes do not kick in until later in the decade, which means that once all of the law is fully implemented, the taxpayers’ tab will be much bigger than originally estimated.

A 4.18.12 Heritage Foundation article provides a more accurate cost for Obamacare.

          A new study by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) revealed today that Obamacare will impose higher taxes totaling $4 trillion between now and 2035, with substantial hits on working Americans. That works out to more than $1.7 trillion over a decade—more than triple the original 10-year score.

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/04/18/top-10-most-expensive-obamacare-taxes-and-fees/?query=Top+10+Most+Expensive+Obamacare+Taxes+and+Fees

Impact of Obamacare Tax Increases

These tax increases will have negative economic effects because they transfer resources from the private sector to government.  A 3.25.12 Heritage Foundation article by Curtis Dubay provided this observation:

          "As a result, the tax hikes in [the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act] will slow economic growth, reduce employment, and suppress wages. These economy-slowing policies could not come at a worse time. PPACA tax increases will impede an already staggering recovery,” Dubay wrote in an analysis of the Obamacare taxes.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/01/obamacare-and-new-taxes-destroying-jobs-and-the-economy

Mr. Dubay made these insightful comments about Obamacare's impact:

1.  The Obamacare tax hikes will slow economic growth, reduce employment, and suppress wages. These economy-slowing policies could not come at a worse time. PPACA tax increases will impede an already staggering recovery.

2.  Obamacare will slow economic growth and destroy jobs.  The Obamacare taxes transfer money from productive private hands to the less efficient public sector.  Unlike government, the private sector allocates resources where they will contribute the most to economic growth.

3.  Obamacare will discourage work and savings.  Higher tax rates decrease the incentives for individuals to work and save more, both of which are essential for economic growth.  Additionally, high tax rates discourage individuals from working harder and saving larger portions of what they earn.

4.  Obamacare will not reduce deficits.  Higher taxes never close budget deficits because, in the short run, Congress will spend all of the extra revenue it receives from higher taxes.  The only way to close deficits is to cut spending and align it with revenue (i.e., a balanced budget).      

The economic damage from these tax hikes is one of many reasons Congress needs to repeal Obamacare and start from scratch to properly reform the health care system.

One of Barack Obama's biggest weaknesses is Obamacare!  Most voters want to repeal Obama's signature healthcare law.  According to the latest Rasmussen poll (7.02.12 report), 52% of likely U.S. voters favor repeal of Obamacare.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law

Obama Soaks the Job Creators

Obama’s plan is straightforward – soak the top-earning households in America – those earning more than $200,000 as single filers or $250,000 as married couples.  According to IRS data, that “tiny, wealthy minority” encompasses more than 4.3 million households!  When you count spouses, children, and other dependents, you are talking about 12.5 million Americans! 

Also many of the small businesses fall into this $200,000 - $250,000 category.  Roughly two thirds of small businesses are taxed at this rate.  We know that small businesses create the majority of jobs in America, yet they are being targeted for tax increases.

Small business owners may fall into this $200,000 to $250,000 category, but they are far from "rich."  Quite often, they are hard-working entrepreneurs who work 60 hours or more per week to run their businesses and provide for their families and employees.  It is our overly complicated Tax Code that places them in the "rich" category.

Raising taxes during a recession has never been viewed as a sensible policy.  The economy is stuck in neutral, and we need to put it in gear.  A tax increase at this time would have a very chilling effect on the economy. 

Tax relief across the full breadth of income levels is the needed approach; and along with that, our country must cut the spending.

Our Economy Is Sick

Unemployment has been persistently high and economic growth is quite weak.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued the latest unemployment figures on 7.06.12 in its Employment Situation Summary.  The report shows that the June unemployment rate remains unchanged at 8.2 % (12.749 million people).  This means that unemployment has stayed above 8 % for Obama's full time in office (41 months). 

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was essentially unchanged at 5.4 million; those individuals accounted for about 42 % of the unemployed.  Only 80,000 new jobs were created during June.  Because it takes about 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth, unemployment will remain high. 

If you want to know how the economy is doing, you need to ask the 12.7 million unemployed or the 5.4 million long-term unemployed persons.  You might also ask the 8.2 million workers who are working part time for economic reasons.

When Obama rammed through the $787 billion Stimulus measure two weeks after taking office in January 2009, he promised that unemployment would not go above 8 %.  This is one more broken promise.

Our economy is not growing and the economic recovery is stuck in neutral.  According to the 6.28.12 report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.9 % in the first quarter of 2012.  A GDP growth rate of 1.9% is quite anemic!  It takes a much higher GDP expansion rate to bring new jobs and a better economy.  Gross Domestic Income (GDI) increased 3.1 % in the first quarter.  Our economy is sick! 

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/pdf/gdp1q12_3rd.pdf

Obamacare has frozen business hiring across America as businesses wait to see how the law will be applied.  Obamacare encapsulates the kinds of harmful regulatory policies the Obama Administration has favored at the expense of economic growth.  Higher tax rates on working and investing will discourage economic growth both now and in the future.

IRS Enforcement of Obamacare

Even before the Supreme Court issued its ruling, the Obama administration was hard at work to ensure that the health care law was enforced.  According to a 4.09.12 article in The Hill:

          The Obama administration is quietly diverting roughly $500 million to the IRS to help implement the president’s healthcare law.

          The money is only part of the IRS’s total implementation spending, and it is being provided outside the normal appropriations process. The tax agency is responsible for several key provisions of the new law, including the unpopular individual mandate.

http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/220475-white-house-has-diverted-500m-to-irs-to-implement-health-law

How will the IRS spend the money? In addition to enforcing the individual mandate, the IRS is responsible for collecting new taxes and fees.  The Hill reports that the agency wants to hire 300 new employees next year, and it requested funding for another 537 new employees to administer Obamacare’s new subsidies for low- and middle-income individuals to purchase insurance.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12033/12-23-selectedhealthcarepublications.pdf

CONCLUSION

Throughout his presidential campaign, candidate Barack Obama promised the American people: “If you’re a family that’s making $250,000 a year or less, you will see no increase in your taxes.” After he became president, Barack Obama reiterated that pledge, but he broke this promise under his signature health care bill.

In case there was any doubt, the Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare is a tax!  Chief Justice John Roberts upheld Obama's health care law on the grounds that the “individual mandate” is a constitutionally permissible tax increase. 

Obamacare contains 18 separate tax increases that will cost taxpayers $502 billion between 2010 and 2019.  In later years, the cost dramatically increases to about $1.7 trillion per decade (triple the amount for the first decade). 

Five major tax hikes make up almost 75 % of the new revenue raised by Obamacare.  The two largest tax increases in Obamacare (Medicare Hospital Insurance and taxes on investment income) account for $210 billion; this is 42 % of the $502 billion total.

Obamacare is a huge liability for Barack Obama.  According to a recent poll, 52% of likely U.S. voters favor repeal of Obamacare. 

Obamacare is already having a very negative impact on the economy.  Unemployment is high and the economy is not growing.  The latest figures show that the unemployment rate remains stuck at 8.2 % and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expanding at an anemic 1.9 % growth rate.  Our economy is sick!

What is Obama's answer for this lousy performance?  The Obama administration is funneling $500 million into the Internal Revenue Service and hiring more IRS agents to enforce the Obamacare nightmare!

The solutions are obvious:  We must ensure the full repeal of Obamacare; we must retire Barack Obama; and we must replace many of the Democrat Congressmen and Senators with conservative Republicans.  The November election is extremely important!

Bio for Henry W. Burke

Henry Burke is a Civil Engineer  with a B.S.C.E. and M.S.C.E.  He has been a Registered Professional Engineer (P.E.) for 37 years and has worked as a Civil Engineer in construction for over 40 years. 

Mr. Burke had a successful 27-year career with a large construction contractor. 

Henry Burke serves as a full-time volunteer to oversee various construction projects. He has written numerous articles on education, engineering, construction, politics, taxes, and the economy.

Henry W. Burke